March 7, 2014 (SSNA) — There are THREE major events this week that are likely to reshape the trends of future dispensations and any other possible solutions and interventions in South Sudan’s Crises. Bewilderingly as it is, all three without the least element of doubt stand tall to invariably speak of how a true military coup is still a likely possibility to take place in Juba. Other dramatic things that cannot be named now can also happen!
First is the clumsy suggestion that the embattled President SKM has formed a certain committee of EIGHT SPLM food lovers to start another SPLM Political Bureau meeting in Addis Ababa! Well today the SPLM rebels have replied that they no longer take orders from SKM or any dinkocrat for that matter. With this response, this point is now out of being an option, plus the so—called SPLM Political Bureau, to borrow the words of General Idi Amin Dada, is now a “PAST TENSE”.
Second point was the fighting that broke out in Juba’s Military Barracks of GIYADA. Although it was indeed over the payment of salaries, however it has nothing to do with NUER fellows, former SPLA soldiers or just civilians, who are now three months stuck in the UN compound in Tongping.
They [Nuer refugees in Tongping -UNIMISS] would rather die inside that compound than venture out for a handful of South Sudanese Pounds knowing very well that the dinkocrats in Juba will want to see them dead than alive.
Who in their right state of mind would do such a risky thing? And if they could, then why wait all these three months?
The truth has now come out and the deadly clashes were indeed sparked by disputes over the preferential treatment of the UPDF mercenaries and SKM’s private tribal fighters who are paid more and in dollars, given rations and taken good care of.
On the other hand these Nuer soldiers and others from other ethnic groups who continue to fight on the side of the Juba government continue to receive unsteady payments, of course in the much depreciated local currency plus being not only neglected but are even starving due to lack of rations.
This was seen to be long coming scenario from day one the moment General Kuol Manyang Juk, the dinkocrat Minister Defence announced that Juba was footing the bills for the UPDF and paying over 100 per head/ day in US dollars.
The third point is to do with the repeated confrontations between SKM government and the UNIMISS Peacekeepers in the country. On more than one occasion SKM and his spokesperson a Warrapian like himself, have both accused the UNIMISS of not only favouring the rebels of Dr. RMTD, but were in fact suspected of giving the rebels both military and logistical supplies.
The latest in this chain of accusations was the revelation by the Lakes State authorities that government security agents have successfully held down a convoy of UNIMISS tracts loaded with heavy machine guns, ammunition and blankets all destined for Dr. RMTD rebels in Unity State.
Whichever way this latest ‘finger pointing’ is going to evolve, I for one just love it. If Kiir can get himself into a damaging confrontation with the UN Security Council, I will love it. If he can get himself into all kinds of mess with the US administration, I will love it too. I will love anything that can make him a rogue in the eyes of the international community. And why not, after all I want to see him out of office today before tomorrow!
If you had followed how the dinkocrats in Juba have always survived by finding scapegoats for all their short comings, you will not fail to see why UNIMISS is now being constantly projected by President SKM as if it represents the bad guys.
In the past the Juba dinkocrats had always blamed the Northern Sudanese “Jallaba” for all the ills that happened in South Sudan from corruption, to tribalism to lack of discipline in their SPLA tribal militias etc….
Today unsurprisingly it has come to be the UNIMISS Peacekeepers. This is not to say the “Jallaba” are no longer being blamed.
However something very central has changed with the dinkocrats. Pagan Amum a dinkocrat by adoption was so brilliant and was a perfect guy in that role of putting blames on others. Unfortunately as destined to seal the fate of dinkocracy in South Sudan, Warrapism has changed most of the laid down principles of orthodox dinkocracy and now Pagan Amum is languishing in jail, perceived an enemy.
The new fellow none other than Ateny Wek Ateny [AWA], although trained in the “blame game”, obviously lacks the charisma with which his predecessor used to perfect the role.
Maybe there is a lesson or two for the dinkocrats to learn here. Having long fingers doesn’t necessarily qualify someone to perfect the game of “finger pointing”! That’s why sometimes it’s referred to as the game of trading accusations.
And to qualify for a good trader one must have a certain degree of wit, this too is nowhere to found in neither President SKM nor his spokesperson AWA. Don’t even talk about the Vice President or the Presidential advisor on legal affairs for this matter.
When President SKM was described by his long time colleagues as a vision-less and directionless leader, I first thought it was an over-statement. No wonder these guys refused to withdraw their statements and some of them have even chosen to languish in the regime’s detentions or return to the rough bush life and restart another wave of rebellion. Whatever they said about their party chairman is indeed the truth. Otherwise given the current sequence of events one is even tempted to regard it as an understatement, for this president is by all counts more irrelevant now as a leader than in any time ever before.
Dr. Justin Ambago Ramba can be reached at: Justinramba@doctors.net.uk.